Morning all
Chopping up the order today…
EUR
Weakness on the horizon? Surging European gas prices are going to keep the EUR under pressure and submerged into a deep recession in the Eurozone over the coming Winter. Blame Russia.
The Nord Stream gas pipeline will run at 20% capacity at a crucial period when EU economies look to reload storage ahead of the winter. The risk that Russia cuts off the gas completely and paralyses economic powerhouses like Germany during the Winter is really hanging on a knife edge. Should this situation worsen watch the EUR weaken past where GBPUSD is now into the late teens/early 20’s.
GBP
The context of the rise in UK wholesale gas prices is staggering as they are now nearly 1000% higher since the start of the crises in late 2021, when Russia began to tighten supplies eyeing an invasion of Ukraine in the New Year. The ongoing rises suggests UK households will see energy costs almost double when the cap is reviewed again in October.
Unfortunately yesterday the debate between Liz and Rishi was cut short due to Kate McCann fainting. However it’s obvious tax is still the key issue. Sunak insists some tax rises will deal with inflation and pay back debt; Truss believes tax cuts can stimulate the economy. Who do you side with?
USD
Big day this afternoon – US interest rate decision at 6pm UK time. Lets hope for some volatility…
Have a good morning.