Happy New Year to you all. Hope you’ve had a good start to the year!
The Financial Times issued results of a survey of 101 economists, which painted a bleak picture of the UK’s economy in 2023: the vast majority expected the UK’s recession to be the longest and worst out of all G7 nations. Looking ahead this quarter, the Pound could see further movement with the release of lending data from the Bank of England (BoE). In fact, consumer credit and mortgage data could further highlight the cost-of-living crisis. All eyes as always will be set on the BoE interest rate hike appetite and how that impacts inflation over the coming months.
The Fed has been closely scrutinising the labour market as it tries to walk a tightrope between taming inflation without tipping the economy into a recession. Still, many on Wall Street expect a recession is coming at some point this year. A large driving factor behind the Wall Street rumours are the snippets of news China chooses to feed us surrounding their lockdown measures and how they choose to combat it. And lets not forget it’s currently Chinese New Year for good measure! Still, not as bad as GBP above…
European stock markets are expected to open higher this morning, continuing the positive start to the new year ahead of the release of more important economic data. The EUR held its ground as German inflation come in below expectations yesterday, easing for a second month in a row in December due to falling energy prices. Looking forward, the economic numbers to digest today include French inflation figures and services PMI data for the Eurozone. Both of which, could provide hints on what ECB policymakers might decide at their next meeting….
Have a good day all 😊